interesting article from New York Real Estate News from therealdeal.com
When “CBS This Morning” co-host Norah O’Donnell asked the CEO of Zillow recently about the accuracy of the website’s automated property value estimates, known as “Zestimates,” she touched on one of the most sensitive perception gaps in American real estate.
Zillow is the most popular online real estate information site, with 73 million unique visitors in December. Along with active listings of properties for sale, it also provides information on houses that are not on the market. You can enter the address or general location in a database of millions of homes and likely pull up key information — square footage, lot size, number of bedrooms and baths, photos, taxes — plus a Zestimate.
Shoppers, sellers and buyers routinely quote Zestimates to real estate agents — and to one another — as gauges of market value. If a house for sale has a Zestimate of $350,000, a buyer might challenge the seller’s list price of $425,000. Or a seller might demand to know from potential listing brokers why they say a property should sell for just $595,000, when Zillow has it at $685,000.
Disparities like these are daily occurrences and, in the words of one agent who posted on the industry blog ActiveRain, they are “the bane of my existence.” Consumers often take Zestimates “as gospel,” said Tim Freund, an agent with Dilbeck Real Estate in Westlake Village, California. If either the buyer or the seller won’t budge off Zillow’s estimated value, he told me in an interview, “that will kill a deal.”
Back to the question posed by O’Donnell: Are Zestimates accurate? And if they’re off the mark, how far off? Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff answered that they’re “a good starting point,” but that nationwide Zestimates have a “median error rate” of about 8 percent.
Whoa. That sounds high. On a $500,000 house, that would be a $40,000 disparity — a lot of money on the table — and could create problems.
But here’s something Rascoff was not asked about: Localized median error rates on Zestimates sometimes far exceed the national median, which raises the odds that sellers and buyers will have conflicts over pricing. Though it’s not prominently featured on the website, at the bottom of Zillow’s home page in small type is the word “Zestimates.” This section provides helpful background information, along with valuation error rates by state and county — some of which are stunners.
For example, in Manhattan, the median valuation error rate is 11.1 percent — which could translate into a $109,000 disparity on an apartment selling for the median $980,000. In Brooklyn, the error rate is 10.4 percent. In some rural counties in California, error rates range as high as 32 percent. In San Francisco, it’s 11.2 percent. With a median home value of $1 million in San Francisco, according to Zillow estimates as of December, a median error rate at this level translates into a price disparity of $112,000.
Some real estate agents have done their own studies of accuracy levels of Zillow in their local markets. Last July, Robert Earl, an agent with Choice Homes Team in the Charlottesville, Virginia, area examined selling prices and Zestimates of all 21 homes sold that month in the nearby community of Lake Monticello. On 17 sales, Zillow overestimated values, including two houses that sold for 61 percent below the Zestimate.
In Carlsbad, California, Jeff Dowler, an agent with Solutions Real Estate, did a similar analysis on sales in two ZIP codes. He found that Zestimates came in below the selling price 70 percent of the time, with disparities ranging as high as $70,000. In 25 percent of the sales, Zestimates were higher than the contract price. In 95 percent of the cases, he said, “Zestimates were wrong. That does not inspire a lot of confidence, at least not for me.” In a second ZIP code, Dowler found that 100 percent of Zestimates were inaccurate, and that disparities were as large as $190,000.
So what do you do now that you’ve got the scoop on Zestimate accuracy? Most important, take Rascoff’’s advice: Look at them as no more than starting points in pricing discussions with the real authorities on local real estate values — experienced agents and appraisers. Zestimates are hardly gospel. Often, far from it.
Monday, March 23, 2015
Colorado leads the nation for home price gains; Denver's growth is even faster
interesting article from Denver Business Journal....
Colorado's home sales prices grew by 9.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the highest rate of appreciation of any state in the country, but metro Denver's growth rate was even higher, at 10 percent.
By comparison, the national average for home-price gains was 5.7 percent during the same one-year period, according to the latest Home Price Index from CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX).
The rate increases include sales of foreclosed or real-estate owned (REO) homes collectively known as distressed properties.
Along with three other states, Colorado reached a new high in the Home Price Index since January 1976, when the index began.
"House-price appreciation has generally been stronger in the western half of the nation and the weakest in the mid-Atlantic and northeast states," said Frank Northcraft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "In part, these trends reflect the strength of regional economies. Colorado and Texas have had stronger job creation and have seen 8 to 9 percent price gains over the past 12 months in our combined indexes. In contrast, values were flat or down in Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland in our overall index, including distressed sales."
"A dearth in supply in many parts of the country is a big factor driving up prices," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Many homeowners have taken advantage of low rates to refinance their homes, and until we see sustained increases in income levels and employment, they would be hunkered down so supplies may remain tights.
"Demand has picked up as low mortgage rates and the cut the Federal Housing Administration insurance premium reduce monthly payments for prospective homebuyers," Nallathambi said.
The CoreLogic report is one of several popular measures of home prices, using different methodologies, covering different housing types and geographical areas, and giving somewhat different results.
The most recent monthly S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index report, issued Feb. 24 and covering December, showed metro-Denver home resale prices up 8.1 percent from a year earlier.
CoreLogic includes data on condominium sales in its reports; Case-Shiller does not.
Colorado's home sales prices grew by 9.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the highest rate of appreciation of any state in the country, but metro Denver's growth rate was even higher, at 10 percent.
By comparison, the national average for home-price gains was 5.7 percent during the same one-year period, according to the latest Home Price Index from CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX).
The rate increases include sales of foreclosed or real-estate owned (REO) homes collectively known as distressed properties.
Along with three other states, Colorado reached a new high in the Home Price Index since January 1976, when the index began.
"House-price appreciation has generally been stronger in the western half of the nation and the weakest in the mid-Atlantic and northeast states," said Frank Northcraft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "In part, these trends reflect the strength of regional economies. Colorado and Texas have had stronger job creation and have seen 8 to 9 percent price gains over the past 12 months in our combined indexes. In contrast, values were flat or down in Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland in our overall index, including distressed sales."
"A dearth in supply in many parts of the country is a big factor driving up prices," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Many homeowners have taken advantage of low rates to refinance their homes, and until we see sustained increases in income levels and employment, they would be hunkered down so supplies may remain tights.
"Demand has picked up as low mortgage rates and the cut the Federal Housing Administration insurance premium reduce monthly payments for prospective homebuyers," Nallathambi said.
The CoreLogic report is one of several popular measures of home prices, using different methodologies, covering different housing types and geographical areas, and giving somewhat different results.
The most recent monthly S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index report, issued Feb. 24 and covering December, showed metro-Denver home resale prices up 8.1 percent from a year earlier.
CoreLogic includes data on condominium sales in its reports; Case-Shiller does not.
DMAR Market Trends March 2015
Homebuyer Demand Remains Strong; Millennials Entering Market at Rapid Pace
Denver inventory remains low, which continues to drive up home prices. Year over year, home prices have increased 19 percent and 18 percent in the average and median sales price respectively. According to Anthony Rael, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee:
"Scarcity of inventory and increasing home prices, coupled with the possibility mortgage interest rates will rise when the Federal Reserve meets in June, has millennials entering the real estate market at a rapid pace"
The number of active listings inched its way to an unprecedented low. However, February did usher in a healthy dose of new residential listings that represented a 13 percent increase from the month prior.
According to the report, the inventory of available homes (single family and condos) for sale was 4,079 at February month end. Notably, 4,240 homes came onto the market, 4,077 homes were placed under contract, and 2,667 homes closed at a median sold price of $295,000 and an average sold price of $348,127; resulting in a closed dollar volume of $928.45 million.
• Homes that went off the market for the holidays are back on, but are going under contract right away.
• Top three counties for SOLD properties in February: Denver (726), Arapahoe (554) & Jefferson (462)
• Top three counties for SOLD properties year-to-date: Denver (1331), Arapahoe (1165) & Jefferson (939)
• New home builders are releasing lots and building as fast as they can, but the availability of skilled craftsmen and materials is pushing "dirt-starts" 7-10 months out.
Denver inventory remains low, which continues to drive up home prices. Year over year, home prices have increased 19 percent and 18 percent in the average and median sales price respectively. According to Anthony Rael, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee:
"Scarcity of inventory and increasing home prices, coupled with the possibility mortgage interest rates will rise when the Federal Reserve meets in June, has millennials entering the real estate market at a rapid pace"
The number of active listings inched its way to an unprecedented low. However, February did usher in a healthy dose of new residential listings that represented a 13 percent increase from the month prior.
According to the report, the inventory of available homes (single family and condos) for sale was 4,079 at February month end. Notably, 4,240 homes came onto the market, 4,077 homes were placed under contract, and 2,667 homes closed at a median sold price of $295,000 and an average sold price of $348,127; resulting in a closed dollar volume of $928.45 million.
• Homes that went off the market for the holidays are back on, but are going under contract right away.
• Top three counties for SOLD properties in February: Denver (726), Arapahoe (554) & Jefferson (462)
• Top three counties for SOLD properties year-to-date: Denver (1331), Arapahoe (1165) & Jefferson (939)
• New home builders are releasing lots and building as fast as they can, but the availability of skilled craftsmen and materials is pushing "dirt-starts" 7-10 months out.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Woman Loses Half of Her House to Neighbor
Scary situation from Journal News...
BREWSTER, N.Y. — A woman who lives on a hillside that straddles the New York-Connecticut line has learned that she doesn't own half her house — all because her mortgage servicer hadn't paid the property taxes.
But until Roseanne Di Guilio decided that she wanted to build a shed a couple of years ago near the property line with her neighbor, she had no idea that she had a problem.
"They told me I no longer owned my land," said Di Guilio, who had called officials in the town of Patterson, N.Y. "I was like, 'What do you mean I don't own that property? I've owned this property since 1997.' "
But Di Guilio lost her New York land in 2010 because the mortgage servicer hadn't paid annual property taxes of about $200 since 2004.
Putnam County foreclosed, and her neighbor, Alethea Jacob, bought it for $275 in a county auction.
"I'm just an average person living my life," said Di Guilio, who works for an electrical contractor in Bethel, Conn. "My neighbor is an opportunist. She was looking for something for nothing."
Not so, said Jacob's lawyer, Robert Karlsson.
"There was a yellow sign posted on the tree announcing a real-estate sale, and she decided she wanted to snap it up," Karlsson said. "Who wouldn't want to make their property larger? She bid on the property, and to her delight, there she goes — she has a larger property."
But Jacob's 0.2 acres includes Di Guilio's living room, kitchen and sun porch. Part of her bathroom is in New York.
And while Jacob took ownership of half of the house, she let Di Guilio keep paying her homeowners' insurance. And Di Guilio paid a tree service to clean up the yard that she didn't realize Jacob owned after trees came down in an October 2011 storm.
Di Guilio also paid contractors to mow the lawn, clean the gutters and blow the leaves off what had become her neighbor's property.
"I escrowed my taxes and thought they were being paid," Di Guilio said. "But they never were."
The snafu happened after Di Guilo refinanced her mortgage in 2004 and continued through a second refinance in 2006. She used to pay only her New Fairfield, Conn., property taxes via an escrow account and wrote a check to Patterson, N.Y., for the land.
In 2004, JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) officials told her they also needed to put money for the New York taxes into the escrow account. But the bank never paid the bill; it sold the loan in 2010 to Seterus Inc.
Spokesmen for both companies declined to comment.
Di Guilio also never saw that notice posted on a tree nor did she receive a notice in the mail from Putnam County alerting her to the delinquencies, she said.
Her status straddling the state line gives her two addresses: 46 Hudson Drive in Brewster and 62 Hudson Drive in New Fairfield. The Brewster mailbox is sealed, and she receives mail at the New Fairfield address.
New York law states that a municipality seeking to foreclose must notify a property owner by mail, and if that fails, officials must ask the postmaster for an alternative address, said Di Guilio's lawyer, Michael Caruso. The foreclosure notice also must be published in a local newspaper and posted in a public place, such as the county clerk's office.
Andrew Negro, Putnam Deputy county attorney, declined to comment on how and when Di Guilio received notice
Di Guilio is seeking to overturn the foreclosure in a case before state Supreme Court Justice Victor Grossman. But the resolution is far from certain because she didn't bring the action within the two-year statute of limitations.
In settlement talks before the court date, Di Guilio said she was shocked by her neighbor's initial demand of $150,000, now down to $35,000.
Jacob's lawyer said the mortgage company would make the payment, but Di Guilio hasn't accepted the settlement yet.
"I feel like I was the one who was damaged and victimized," she said. "I don't think it's fair that my neighbor should profit."
BREWSTER, N.Y. — A woman who lives on a hillside that straddles the New York-Connecticut line has learned that she doesn't own half her house — all because her mortgage servicer hadn't paid the property taxes.
But until Roseanne Di Guilio decided that she wanted to build a shed a couple of years ago near the property line with her neighbor, she had no idea that she had a problem.
"They told me I no longer owned my land," said Di Guilio, who had called officials in the town of Patterson, N.Y. "I was like, 'What do you mean I don't own that property? I've owned this property since 1997.' "
But Di Guilio lost her New York land in 2010 because the mortgage servicer hadn't paid annual property taxes of about $200 since 2004.
Putnam County foreclosed, and her neighbor, Alethea Jacob, bought it for $275 in a county auction.
"I'm just an average person living my life," said Di Guilio, who works for an electrical contractor in Bethel, Conn. "My neighbor is an opportunist. She was looking for something for nothing."
Not so, said Jacob's lawyer, Robert Karlsson.
"There was a yellow sign posted on the tree announcing a real-estate sale, and she decided she wanted to snap it up," Karlsson said. "Who wouldn't want to make their property larger? She bid on the property, and to her delight, there she goes — she has a larger property."
But Jacob's 0.2 acres includes Di Guilio's living room, kitchen and sun porch. Part of her bathroom is in New York.
And while Jacob took ownership of half of the house, she let Di Guilio keep paying her homeowners' insurance. And Di Guilio paid a tree service to clean up the yard that she didn't realize Jacob owned after trees came down in an October 2011 storm.
Di Guilio also paid contractors to mow the lawn, clean the gutters and blow the leaves off what had become her neighbor's property.
"I escrowed my taxes and thought they were being paid," Di Guilio said. "But they never were."
The snafu happened after Di Guilo refinanced her mortgage in 2004 and continued through a second refinance in 2006. She used to pay only her New Fairfield, Conn., property taxes via an escrow account and wrote a check to Patterson, N.Y., for the land.
In 2004, JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) officials told her they also needed to put money for the New York taxes into the escrow account. But the bank never paid the bill; it sold the loan in 2010 to Seterus Inc.
Spokesmen for both companies declined to comment.
Di Guilio also never saw that notice posted on a tree nor did she receive a notice in the mail from Putnam County alerting her to the delinquencies, she said.
Her status straddling the state line gives her two addresses: 46 Hudson Drive in Brewster and 62 Hudson Drive in New Fairfield. The Brewster mailbox is sealed, and she receives mail at the New Fairfield address.
New York law states that a municipality seeking to foreclose must notify a property owner by mail, and if that fails, officials must ask the postmaster for an alternative address, said Di Guilio's lawyer, Michael Caruso. The foreclosure notice also must be published in a local newspaper and posted in a public place, such as the county clerk's office.
Andrew Negro, Putnam Deputy county attorney, declined to comment on how and when Di Guilio received notice
Di Guilio is seeking to overturn the foreclosure in a case before state Supreme Court Justice Victor Grossman. But the resolution is far from certain because she didn't bring the action within the two-year statute of limitations.
In settlement talks before the court date, Di Guilio said she was shocked by her neighbor's initial demand of $150,000, now down to $35,000.
Jacob's lawyer said the mortgage company would make the payment, but Di Guilio hasn't accepted the settlement yet.
"I feel like I was the one who was damaged and victimized," she said. "I don't think it's fair that my neighbor should profit."
Small Cottage That Looks Like a Stack of Firewood
from sliptalk.com
From a distance, this might look like a pile logs left behind by some lumberjacks. No matter how you look at it, it definitely just looks like a pile of firewood... but it's not at all. There is something hidden in these photos.
This camouflaged log cabin was designed by Piet Hein Eeek. It was designed for Dutch performer, Hans Liberg as a recording studio. I now appreciate nature more than ever after seeing this.
From a distance, this might look like a pile logs left behind by some lumberjacks. No matter how you look at it, it definitely just looks like a pile of firewood... but it's not at all. There is something hidden in these photos.
This camouflaged log cabin was designed by Piet Hein Eeek. It was designed for Dutch performer, Hans Liberg as a recording studio. I now appreciate nature more than ever after seeing this.
Denver a top 10 destination for people relocating
interesting article from Denver Business Journal...
Denver missed the mark as a top moving destination for another moving company's ranking last year but managed to land in the top 10 in the Penske Truck Rental's list of popular places to relocate.
The Mile High City ranked No. 7 in Penske's report of the top moving destinations in the United States for 2014.
That's up from the No. 9 spot in Penske's 2013 study, which noted that Denver's average temperature is mild, its top industries are telecommunications and aerospace and it has an average rental listing of $1,553 a month. Its status as a craft brew mecca was listed as one of the top reasons people move to Denver, the report said.
The top 10 moving destinations for 2014 in the report are:
1.Atlanta (No. 1 for five years running).
2.Tampa/Sarasota (No. 2 in 2013).
3.Dallas/Fort Worth (No. 3 in 2013).
4.Phoenix (up from No. 5 in 2013).
5.Orlando (down from No. 4 in 2013).
6.Seattle (up from No. 7 in 2013).
7.Denver (up from No. 9 in 2013).
8.Houston (down from No. 6 in 2013).
9.Chicago (down from No. 8 in 2013).
10.Las Vegas (No. 10 in 2013).
Penske Truck Rental, based in Reading, Pennsylvania, is a national transportation and moving services company. To compile the report, the company compiled data from consumer truck rental reservations made online or through a Penske call center.
Denver missed the mark as a top moving destination for another moving company's ranking last year but managed to land in the top 10 in the Penske Truck Rental's list of popular places to relocate.
The Mile High City ranked No. 7 in Penske's report of the top moving destinations in the United States for 2014.
That's up from the No. 9 spot in Penske's 2013 study, which noted that Denver's average temperature is mild, its top industries are telecommunications and aerospace and it has an average rental listing of $1,553 a month. Its status as a craft brew mecca was listed as one of the top reasons people move to Denver, the report said.
The top 10 moving destinations for 2014 in the report are:
1.Atlanta (No. 1 for five years running).
2.Tampa/Sarasota (No. 2 in 2013).
3.Dallas/Fort Worth (No. 3 in 2013).
4.Phoenix (up from No. 5 in 2013).
5.Orlando (down from No. 4 in 2013).
6.Seattle (up from No. 7 in 2013).
7.Denver (up from No. 9 in 2013).
8.Houston (down from No. 6 in 2013).
9.Chicago (down from No. 8 in 2013).
10.Las Vegas (No. 10 in 2013).
Penske Truck Rental, based in Reading, Pennsylvania, is a national transportation and moving services company. To compile the report, the company compiled data from consumer truck rental reservations made online or through a Penske call center.
Metro Denver struggles with a record low supply of homes for sale
interesting article Denver Post
Z Davis Robison and his wife, Mary, tried and failed for eight months to buy a house near their shop in Old Town Lafayette, before literally stumbling on the one they snapped up in January.
"The time for thinking about what your needs are is before you start looking," said the Oklahoma transplant. "Whenever you see something, you have to be ready to pounce in this market."
Mary was driving from their shop, Curating the Cool, and saw the landlord of a neighboring rental had just posted a "For Sale By Owner" sign. Z raced across the street to look at the place. The owner was still there, and Robison wrote a $5,000 check on the spot to seal the deal.
Just when the supply of homes available for sale in metro Denver seemed like it couldn't possibly go any lower, it has gone lower — a lot lower.
Metro Denver's inventory of homes for sale busted through new lows in December and January and could do it again in February, and that has left buyers frenzied, even desperate.
After slipping below 5,000 in December, the number of homes available for sale stood at only 4,171 at the end of January, according to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors, or DMAR, which uses a wider 11-county definition of the metro area.
So how low is 4,171? It is only one-eighth of the all-time high inventory of nearly 32,000 in the summer of 2006, during the housing bubble, and a quarter of the 12-year average of 16,717 homes available for sale at year-end.
The inventory is now so low, some in the industry argue, that it is causing the market to distort and contort in unexpected ways.
"We have never seen it this low," said Kelly Moye, a Realtor with Re/Max Alliance in Broomfield. "It is a bit panicked. We are all in a race."
Moye on Monday sent out 1,200 postcards to owners with their updated home prices. They told potential sellers that their homes are worth more than they realize and now is the time to sell.
"Even if they do realize it, they have nowhere to go," she said, noting that many sellers aren't listing because there is so little for them to buy.
Continually escalating rents and looser lending standards, by contrast, are motivating buyers to move quickly, as are 30-year mortgage rates below 4 percent.
The last time they dipped that low, in the first half of 2013, it set off a buying frenzy in metro Denver.
At the time, the thinking was that home prices, still depressed from the downturn, were holding back supply. Let prices rise, and supply would meet demand — that's how markets are supposed to work.
Prices are now much higher than they were in 2013, yet inventory is even tighter than it was back then.
Anthony Rael, chairman of the market trends committee at DMAR, estimates that new listings per month could double and they would all be snapped up.
"We are in uncharted territory," Rael said. "It is a head scratcher for all of us."
Buyers and their agents are increasingly bypassing the multiple listing service and turning to social media and networking to find properties. Rael said he has seen as many as 25 percent of sales now occurring outside traditional channels.
Buyers also are being forced into riskier actions, like skipping contingencies or not requesting repairs.
"You better pick and chose what you are going to ask for," Rael said.
They are bidding way above the list price and agreeing to bring extra cash to cover any gap if the appraisal comes up short. And if they have enough cash, they are throwing it down to push out buyers who need to borrow.
Above all, the shortage is contributing to a deep sense of frustration, especially for those wanting homes priced under $300,000.
Jocelyn Chardon said she never imagined the struggles she and her husband Jordan would face when they started searching for their first home in December.
"A house we looked at had 96 showings in two days — it was unreal," Jocelyn said. "When we put one offer down, there were 18 already in place. It is like a war out there."
The young couple toured about 20 properties in north Thornton and wrote offers on four that stood out, only to lose every time, either to cash buyers or those willing to way overbid the list price.
"We see more houses going up for sale, but I just roll my eyes because I know it will be a waste of time," Jocelyn said.
The couple will stay in her parent's home, where they moved a year ago to save up on the down payment, and pursue a saner search.
Another way to measure the tightness in a market is the time it would take to sell all available listings at the current pace of sales. A balanced market should have about six months of supply, according to the National Association of Realtors.
In metro Denver, that number is running closer to six weeks versus a national average closer to 20 weeks, according to the National Association of Realtors. For homes in the $200,000 to $299,999 range, supply is only about two to three weeks.
The flip side of sellers moving their homes so quickly is that many buyers are spending weeks and months searching.
Rael said one client looked at 94 listings over 11 months before landing a home. Moye said she had a client who pulled out all the stops, offering above list price, writing impressive letters to sellers and even delivering them cookies. After 10 failed offers, she resigned herself to renting.
"She couldn't handle it anymore, the ups and downs," Moye said. "She just lost speed. It was awful."
A few things could relieve the pressure on the market. Interest rates could spike higher, like they did in 2013, sidelining buyers and causing the inventory to rise.
Home prices and rents could rise so much that people view Denver as too expensive and stop moving here. Or builders could shift their focus from higher-priced properties to entry-level homes, bringing needed inventory.
But failing that, hopes are fading that a massive wave of sellers will somehow appear and provide relief to anxious buyers.
"There is no indication that there will be an abundance of listings," Rael said. "The next 30 to 60 days will be really telling as to what kind of year we will have."
Z Davis Robison and his wife, Mary, tried and failed for eight months to buy a house near their shop in Old Town Lafayette, before literally stumbling on the one they snapped up in January.
"The time for thinking about what your needs are is before you start looking," said the Oklahoma transplant. "Whenever you see something, you have to be ready to pounce in this market."
Mary was driving from their shop, Curating the Cool, and saw the landlord of a neighboring rental had just posted a "For Sale By Owner" sign. Z raced across the street to look at the place. The owner was still there, and Robison wrote a $5,000 check on the spot to seal the deal.
Just when the supply of homes available for sale in metro Denver seemed like it couldn't possibly go any lower, it has gone lower — a lot lower.
Metro Denver's inventory of homes for sale busted through new lows in December and January and could do it again in February, and that has left buyers frenzied, even desperate.
After slipping below 5,000 in December, the number of homes available for sale stood at only 4,171 at the end of January, according to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors, or DMAR, which uses a wider 11-county definition of the metro area.
So how low is 4,171? It is only one-eighth of the all-time high inventory of nearly 32,000 in the summer of 2006, during the housing bubble, and a quarter of the 12-year average of 16,717 homes available for sale at year-end.
The inventory is now so low, some in the industry argue, that it is causing the market to distort and contort in unexpected ways.
"We have never seen it this low," said Kelly Moye, a Realtor with Re/Max Alliance in Broomfield. "It is a bit panicked. We are all in a race."
Moye on Monday sent out 1,200 postcards to owners with their updated home prices. They told potential sellers that their homes are worth more than they realize and now is the time to sell.
"Even if they do realize it, they have nowhere to go," she said, noting that many sellers aren't listing because there is so little for them to buy.
Continually escalating rents and looser lending standards, by contrast, are motivating buyers to move quickly, as are 30-year mortgage rates below 4 percent.
The last time they dipped that low, in the first half of 2013, it set off a buying frenzy in metro Denver.
At the time, the thinking was that home prices, still depressed from the downturn, were holding back supply. Let prices rise, and supply would meet demand — that's how markets are supposed to work.
Prices are now much higher than they were in 2013, yet inventory is even tighter than it was back then.
Anthony Rael, chairman of the market trends committee at DMAR, estimates that new listings per month could double and they would all be snapped up.
"We are in uncharted territory," Rael said. "It is a head scratcher for all of us."
Buyers and their agents are increasingly bypassing the multiple listing service and turning to social media and networking to find properties. Rael said he has seen as many as 25 percent of sales now occurring outside traditional channels.
Buyers also are being forced into riskier actions, like skipping contingencies or not requesting repairs.
"You better pick and chose what you are going to ask for," Rael said.
They are bidding way above the list price and agreeing to bring extra cash to cover any gap if the appraisal comes up short. And if they have enough cash, they are throwing it down to push out buyers who need to borrow.
Above all, the shortage is contributing to a deep sense of frustration, especially for those wanting homes priced under $300,000.
Jocelyn Chardon said she never imagined the struggles she and her husband Jordan would face when they started searching for their first home in December.
"A house we looked at had 96 showings in two days — it was unreal," Jocelyn said. "When we put one offer down, there were 18 already in place. It is like a war out there."
The young couple toured about 20 properties in north Thornton and wrote offers on four that stood out, only to lose every time, either to cash buyers or those willing to way overbid the list price.
"We see more houses going up for sale, but I just roll my eyes because I know it will be a waste of time," Jocelyn said.
The couple will stay in her parent's home, where they moved a year ago to save up on the down payment, and pursue a saner search.
Another way to measure the tightness in a market is the time it would take to sell all available listings at the current pace of sales. A balanced market should have about six months of supply, according to the National Association of Realtors.
In metro Denver, that number is running closer to six weeks versus a national average closer to 20 weeks, according to the National Association of Realtors. For homes in the $200,000 to $299,999 range, supply is only about two to three weeks.
The flip side of sellers moving their homes so quickly is that many buyers are spending weeks and months searching.
Rael said one client looked at 94 listings over 11 months before landing a home. Moye said she had a client who pulled out all the stops, offering above list price, writing impressive letters to sellers and even delivering them cookies. After 10 failed offers, she resigned herself to renting.
"She couldn't handle it anymore, the ups and downs," Moye said. "She just lost speed. It was awful."
A few things could relieve the pressure on the market. Interest rates could spike higher, like they did in 2013, sidelining buyers and causing the inventory to rise.
Home prices and rents could rise so much that people view Denver as too expensive and stop moving here. Or builders could shift their focus from higher-priced properties to entry-level homes, bringing needed inventory.
But failing that, hopes are fading that a massive wave of sellers will somehow appear and provide relief to anxious buyers.
"There is no indication that there will be an abundance of listings," Rael said. "The next 30 to 60 days will be really telling as to what kind of year we will have."
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