Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Are we headed for another housing collapse?

an interesting article from the New York Post on a question I've gotten lately....

When an average $1 million home goes on the market in Santa Clara, Calif., it can reel in 20 offers. Quickly, and without batting an eye.

“As long as high-tech companies keep bringing people here from all over the world and paying them, high prices will continue,” says Brett Burns, a broker with San Jose-based Climb Real Estate. “If Google uprooted and set up shop in Texas, maybe that would make a big splash, but I don’t see a plateau as long as demand keeps getting fed.”

Median home prices across the nation have been increasing with gusto, though perhaps not at levels as staggering as San Jose’s median price tag of $1,183,400. In the second quarter of 2017, prices jumped by 6.2 percent compared with the same period in 2016 to an average cost of $258,300, according to the National Association of Realtors. While trends diverge profoundly from place to place — for all sorts of economic, geographical and lifestyle reasons — a good many of the nation’s metropolitan locales have experienced record appreciation.

Coupled with inventory that is 9 percent lower than it was in 2016 and income that has not kept up with prices, the natural post-recession question arises.

One decade after the biggest housing collapse in America’s history led to a global recession, could we be facing another crisis?

“Not happening,” says Burns, adding that the 2007 housing crash “was based on lending practices which have since been cleaned up.”

Many industry experts agree. The subprime mortgages that targeted borrowers with less-than-perfect credit and led to financial turmoil 10 years ago do not play a role in today’s real estate market.

“When you talk about a bubble, you think of people being really exhilarated and excited and prices going way up. We don’t see that now,” says Annie Cion Gruenberger, who has been a New York City broker with Warburg Reality for 28 years. “We have a very positive market, but a targeted market of smart buyers.”

So what do high price tags and low supply mean, if not economic catastrophe?”

The 2007 collapse spooked home builders so much, they didn’t want to build anything but high-end properties. That drove up house prices and made it harder for people to buy starter homes.

Meanwhile, the market was split into two halves: places such as Las Vegas, where development was overstretched and unsustainable, and which is still struggling to bounce back; and places such as Portland, Ore., and Silicon Valley, where NIMBY regulations limit how much construction can happen, meaning fewer homes available to buy. As a result, there’s a real lack of housing where the jobs are.

While cities such as Seattle, Denver, San Francisco and Austin show double-digit spikes in house prices, cities such as South Bend, Ind., Baton Rouge, La., and Atlantic City report dwindling numbers. On average, 87 percent of the 150 housing markets tracked by NAR experienced rising prices in 2016, up from an average of 75 percent in 2014.

In areas that were hard hit by the housing bubble, current market trends vary, and not all of the data is rosy. In Tampa, Fla., thousands of homes have been lost to foreclosure during the past decade. Today, the city appears to be recovering. It has the fourth-highest population growth in the country, adding 61,000 residents last year, according to the US Census. Tampa’s July unemployment rate was 4.1, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the median house price is $244,500, which is just about the national average.

In the extreme case, there is Vegas, which suffered the highest foreclosure rate in the country following the housing crash. Though sales and prices have been edging back, thousands of people are still reeling. Those who borrowed against their homes or bought at the height of the market may not see a return on their initial investment. Some still owe more than their homes are worth, 15 to 20 percent by some estimates. Add to the mix a 6.4 percent unemployment rate and low-selling homes owned by investors, and a full recovery seems a tall order.

In the middle, there are towns such as Westport, Conn., which has 31 more houses on the market today than it did last year and a median sale price that’s been fairly flat for the past two. “There is a wild price discrepancy here. If a $23 million home sells, it throws off all the numbers,” says Amy Swanson, agent with William Raveis Real Estate Estate in Westport. “But the forecast is for a .66 percent decrease in median price within 12 months.”

The New York City market is brisk and definitely selling, according to Gruenberger, but buyers aren’t overpaying as they might be elsewhere around the country. “The $2 million-and-under market is very strong, but we are seeing a pushback of overinflated prices. Foreign buyers are not investing in the high-end condos, and people see these prices dropping. There is a trickle-down effect.”

But the void left by foreign buyers no longer propping up the high-end market may not be filled by domestic buyers rushing to fill it. This gap could spell trouble down the road.

In total, about 64 percent of Americans own their own homes, compared with 68 percent a decade ago. “I feel very fortunate to be able to afford our house,” says first-time buyer Greg Johnson, 30, of the property he and his wife, Molly Blank, 28, recently purchased in Seattle, where he works at a nonprofit bioscience research organization and she works at the University of Washington, Seattle. “We both really enjoy where we work and would rather not have to change our employers and work for a big company, or live in a different city, to be able to afford a house.”

One problem prospective buyers face is that there aren’t enough houses out there for everyone who wants one. (Among these home seekers are the so-called “Boomerang Buyers” who are getting back into the market after post-recession trepidation.) This low housing stock drives prices up. In some cities, prices, even at the low end of a market where inventory is most scarce, are unaffordable for first-time buyers. (In the higher end of the market, there are houses to sell.)

Thirty-two percent of home sales today are going to maiden purchasers, compared to 40 percent historically, says the NAR. Typically, this buyer is 32, earns $72,000 and pays $182,500 for a home. A two-income couple pays $208,500, on average.

In certain areas, potential young homeowners, even with such salaries, have to forgo equity and continue to rent. But in places such as San Jose, first-time buyers have enough money to buy even overvalued property in the lower swath.

“The job market is now good for millennials,” says Ken Fears, NAR’s director of regional economics and housing finance. “Competing with investors for homes at a low price point is easier. Some millennials have access to credit and to inventory, and mortgage rates are low. It’s improved, but not great.”

Seattle, like San Jose and numerous other Northern California cities, draws this age group to its high-paying high-tech jobs. “They want to live close to downtown where their offices are, and first-time buyers can do that. They can afford $700,000 to $1 million on a starter home,” says Heather Dolin, broker with Seattle-based Windermere Real Estate. But competition for these homes is fierce, with just under a month’s supply of inventory available in the metro area. “Three to six months is considered a balanced market,” says Dolin.

It would seem that the way to stability, then, simply requires more homes for people to buy. But houses are not a typical commodity. New ones can’t be produced from scratch, quickly and inexpensively, on an assembly line. Old ones can’t be made available when the market wants them to be. There are many reasons why inventory is low, most of which can’t be changed.

NAR’s Fears points to a number of trends: First, homeowners are staying in place longer, limiting the number of existing homes for sale. Low unemployment rates are keeping them from leaving town in search of work. High home prices are inspiring them to remodel rather than relocate within their communities, if they want a different kind of house. First-time buyers who can afford it might buy a home that can accommodate two kids instead of one, precluding a move a couple years after their purchase.

Grandparents are staying put to live near their kids, rather than flying off to retirement far away.

Second, new construction is still springing back from the 2008 recession. Home builders have had a hard time keeping up with population growth since then, in most cities. “There was a high cost for dealing with regulation, a high lumber tax on Canadian framing lumber, a decline in the labor pool,” says Fears. But the construction industry has shown signs of life. In July, according to US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development data, housing completions were 8.2 percent higher than they were one year ago, though 6.2 percent lower than they were in June.

Even when they do build, developers are restricted by urban planning and geography, in certain states more than others. In Portland, Ore., cities are required by state law to form an urban growth boundary around its perimeter, controlling expansion onto farm and forest lands.

“Since about 2009, a lot of areas inside the boundary have been dormant,” says Victor Bulbes, broker with Keller Williams. “Builders have been reluctant to get back in the game.”

The Portland metro area, like other Western cities, is popular, with a record low 4 percent unemployment rate and stable population growth. Since 2010, the city has grown 8.3 percent, according to US Census data.

Lifestyle preference also drives the market.

In Denver, where the number of available houses has plummeted in the last seven years from 12,000 to 2,000 and median prices grow by around 9 percent annually, most people want to live in the urban core, says David Schlichter, Denver-based broker with Keller Williams’ The Schlichter Team.

“There is definitely plenty of land here, at the base of the mountains, next to the foothills. There is some development in the outskirts, but where people want to be, in the city, there is only finite space.”

From 2012 to 2015, with the exception of 2014, Denver experienced double-digit price appreciation.

“It will taper off,” says Schlichter. “You can’t have that in perpetuity because at some point, another city becomes more attractive. Now, there are way more people moving here than leaving. Each week, I get a call from someone from the Bay Area who is fed up. Here, houses are half the price. To them, this is paradise.”

Still, lingering fears from the past housing bubble and a present-day crisis in London, where astronomical prices mean young buyers are entirely locked out of the property ladder, are stoking concerns that market growth in the US could one day become unsustainable.

In March, William Poole, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, wrote a column for cnn.com, pointing to concerns about the country’s two biggest mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “In Freddie’s 2016 Annual Report, the agency says 36 percent of its obligations are ‘credit enhanced,’ meaning they carry mortgage insurance of one sort or another, which is typically used for weaker mortgages,” Poole wrote. “If these weak subprime mortgages begin to fail in large numbers, so also will the insuring companies.”

Jonathan Miller, a real estate analyst at Miller Samuel, is unmoved by such arguments. He says the average buyer today has an average credit score “well above 700. They are some of the highest average credit scores in history.” He added that any subprime failures would be offset by the quality of most American borrowers being “unusually high.”

For now, Schlichter in Seattle agrees. “Barring some calamitous event, I don’t feel that our local economy is threatened to the point that a bubble is about to burst,” he says, then added: “But we have a highly unpredictable president, and everything could change with a tweet.”

Metro Denver housing market’s summer slide

interesting trends from Denver Post...

Metro Denver housing market’s summer slide extends into August

August numbers confirm slowing trend seen in July

Metro Denver’s heated housing market continued to show signs of cooling in August, with single-family home sales and median home prices dropping for a second month, according to a monthly update Wednesday from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.

The median price of a single-family home sold in the 11-county area fell 2.4 percent from July to August for $410,000 but remains up 7.9 percent over the year. The number of single-family homes sold fell 8.7 percent month over month and is down 10.6 percent from a year ago.

Condos fared better, with the number of sales in August up 1.8 percent over July and down a smaller 3.4 percent year over year. The median sold price also rose 1.8 percent to $275,000 between July and August and is up 12.9 percent year over year.

But condo listings experienced a big jump in the average time on market, which rose to 38 days in August, a 46.1 percent increase from a year earlier. Single-family listings spent an average of 27 days on the market, a 6.9 percent decrease year over year.

“Overall, I feel positive about this market even though we are transitioning toward something that looks more normal,” said Steve Danyliw, chairman of the DMAR Market Trends Committee in a statement accompanying the report.

The inventory of homes available for sale remains tight. There were 7,360 residential properties listed at the end of August, about the same number as in July.

The report shows that the most active part of the market remains single-family homes priced under $400,00 and condos priced below $300,000, segments where builders are adding little new inventory despite strong demand.

Subterranean Surprise! This Modest Arizona Home Comes With a Huge Cave

fun listing from realtor.com

The Grand Canyon Caverns are a major attraction in Seligman, AZ. However, if you'd like to avoid paying admission or dealing with crowds, you could purchase your own cave. Better yet, a cave with a house of your very own.

If you happen to be in the market for off-the-grid living with a seriously subterranean component, this intriguing two-level home could be the spot for you. Listed at $199,900, it's a one-of-a-kind place with a price we truly dig.

Aboveground, the two-bedroom, one-bath home is 990 square feet and sits on nearly 6 acres with views of the Aubrey Cliffs. But what’s below the property is more enticing: a 3,000-square-foot cave.





Tuesday, August 22, 2017

3 Tips to Sell Your House in the Fall

some helpful advice for fall home sales...from realtor.com

Although the real estate business tends to slow down in the fall, the season still can be an attractive time to put a home on the market. If you want to sell your house in the next few months, it can be done.

Potential buyers—such as empty nesters or millennials who aren’t worried about moving after the school year has started—will compete for fewer homes on the market and will likely want to seal a deal before the holiday season kicks into high gear.

Here are three tips to help make your home more attractive in autumn, so you can sell your house before winter comes.

1. Clean Up

As many regions slowly shift from a sellers’ market to a moderate or buyers’ market, you’ll want to do everything you can to make your house look its best.

Pay particular attention to eliminating clutter and safety hazards that can crop up with cooler weather:
•Make sure your yard, walkways and gutters are free of leaves and debris.
•Mow your lawn so it looks neat.
•Trim trees so unexpected winds don’t knock down branches that could damage your home or hurt anybody.
•If it is rainy, be sure you have a good doormat so visitors can wipe their feet and not traipse mud and water through the house.
•If you already have snow, be sure stairs and walkways leading to your front door are not icy.
•Wash decks and wipe down windows so they sparkle instead of appear streaked by rain.
•Vacuum and wash down the fireplace, especially if it hasn’t been used in months.
•If you live in a region where it’s still warm enough to use the patio, make sure the area is inviting and arranged with the views from indoors in mind.
•Above all, make sure your doorway and the rest of the house is clear from knick knacks, bicycles and toys that make your home appear cluttered.

2. Create Autumn Curb Appeal

If your house's exterior looks drab, you may want to consider painting it a warm color, planting seasonal flowers, or placing pumpkins strategically along your walkup to accent your home’s appeal with instant color.

Potential buyers will make an instant judgment when they see your home, and you want to be sure it’s positive.

While you don’t want to go overboard with fall decorations that detract from the home itself, a few displays like a festive front-door wreath—and lighting so people can clearly see the path to your front door—can make your home feel fresh, even in the fall.

3. Keep the House Cozy

Entering a cold house could leave an unfavorable impression. So warm up your home with a fresh coat of paint and set the thermostat at a comfortable temperature.

Another way to warm up a home is with light, especially as days get shorter leading into winter. Be sure to open blinds and curtains so plenty of light illuminates the home’s interior.

A few embellishments like red, orange or golden yellow pillows can breathe new life into dull sofa—or a fall centerpiece can highlight a certain area of the home.

While you don’t want your home to look like the latest department store display, well-chosen embellishments that give potential buyers the impression you’ve paid attention to the fine details and taken care of any problems with the home will help you put your best face forward.

And remember, there’s nothing wrong with trying to sweeten the deal with the comforting aroma of a freshly-baked, cinnamon-laced apple pie or pumpkin cupcake to leave a lasting impression of your home as the potential buyer takes a bite.

7 Reasons Fall Might Just Be The Best Time to Buy a Home

still a seller's market in Denver, yet here's some things to consider on the seasonal advantages to buying this fall...

from realtor.com

Spring and summer usually get all the real estate glory with lofty accolades as the best time to buy a home—and, of course, the busiest. Meanwhile, their seasonal sibling, fall, often gets tossed to the leaf pile by potential buyers who might think autumn is just about haunted houses and turkey dinners rather than house hunting.

But surprise! Fall is not only a great time to buy a home, it might also be the best season to find the perfect property (and not just because you can browse the listings while cupping a pumpkin latte).

Read on to discover the many reasons.

Reason No. 1: Lower home prices

The best month to snag a deal when buying a home? October. This isn't just some random guess; it's based on RealtyTrac's analysis of more than 32 million home sales over 15 years. The resulting data showed that on average, October buyers paid 2.6% below estimated market value at the time for their homes.

For a house that would normally be $300,000, 2.6% translates into a $7,800 discount. Those savings are nothing to sneeze at, so bargain hunters should get hopping once autumn rolls around. (For an even better deal, aim for Oct. 8, when buyers get a home, on average, at 10.8% below estimated market value.)

"For buyers looking for a better deal, fall is a great time to make offers," says New York City Realtor® Joanne R. Douglas. (In case you're wondering, the worst month for buyers is April, when homes sell for 1.2% above estimated market value. The worst single day is Jan. 19, with an average 9.6% premium.)

Reason No. 2: Less competition

Like a beach after Labor Day, the realty market clears out as the days turn crisp. Most summer buyers have already found a home, meaning a fall buyer will have way less competition for the available houses on the market, says Bill Golden of Re/Max Metro Atlanta Cityside. And don't worry about those buyers who didn't close before August, either.

"Many folks will drop out of the market until after the new year," says Golden, giving a fall buyer even greater room to roam at open houses. There may not be as many properties to choose from, but as Golden says, "a little patience and perseverance could reap big rewards."

Reason No. 3: Worn-out home sellers

Say hello to your little friend, leverage. Sellers who have their homes on the market in the fall "are generally people who need to sell, which can make for better negotiations for the buyer," says Golden. And if a home you have your eye on has been on the market all summer, you're really in the driver's seat as far as making an offer the seller can't refuse. The longer a home sits on the market, the more negotiating power the buyer wields.

Reason No. 4: The holidays are around the corner

Not only are most home sellers worn out after the summer selling season, they're also caught between a real estate rock and a hard place in that the holidays are barreling down on them. If they want to move and settle down in time to host Thanksgiving and put up their Christmas lights, they'll have to close, fast. So use this preholiday window to your advantage by offering to help them vacate fast if they cut you a deal.

Reason No. 5: Year-end tax credits

No one wants to buy a home purely to make their accountant happy. But there's a sweet added incentive to closing on a home at the end of the fiscal year. Come the following April 15, you might be able to take some nice tax deductions, including closing costs, property tax, and mortgage interest, to offset your taxable earnings.

Reason No. 6: More quality time with your real estate team

As the year comes to an end, fewer buyers also means you should have the full attention of your real estate agent, mortgage broker, real estate lawyer, and everyone else on your house hunting team. You can take your time to ask all those questions you have about earnest money, due diligence, title transfers, and more without feeling like you're horning in their busiest season to turn a buck.

Reason No. 7: Home improvement bargains

Once you close on that home you found in the fall, you may want to upgrade your appliances. Luckily, December is when major appliances—refrigerators, stoves, washers, and dryers—are at their very cheapest, according to Consumer Reports. It's also the best time of year to buy cookware and TVs.

So once you're settled in (and provided you have any money left), get ready to renovate!

“Granny cottages” growing in Denver after 2010 city zoning change

some people call them granny pods, granny cottages, etc...
interesting articles from Denver Post, along with pics below....



When Jennifer Superka and her husband, Brian, bought their home in Denver’s Sunnyside neighborhood in 2010, they had a broken down old blacksmith studio at the back of their property.

Shortly after, they decided to convert the shop and overhaul it into an apartment that they rent out. The money they get nearly pays for their mortgage.

“I was thinking maybe down the line my mom would move in, but the bedroom is a loft, so it’s not very practical,” Jennifer Superka said.

She is just one person taking advantage of the city’s new zoning codes that took effect in 2010 that, in part, allowed for more accessory dwelling units, commonly referred to as “granny flats” or cottage houses. They were added to the zoning code to give more options for people to move in family members such as elder parents, or for seniors to perhaps move in a caretaker and still maintain a private residence.

The units can be attached or detached separate units of a house that allow for an independent living space. The city only tracks newly built cottage houses, but there is an uptick, as 66 units have been built in areas of the city where the zoning code permits the additions since 2010. With all carriage houses or granny flats, the owner is required to occupy one of the units and must own both structures.

Superka’s unit is not among the 66, as the building was converted from a pre-existing structure.

“Under the old code, (accessory dwelling units) were only allowed in parts of the city and the newest mixed-use zoned districts,” said Kyle Dalton, principal city planner with Denver’s Community Planning and Development.

Popular neighborhoods that have seen the bulk of the new units include Berkeley/Regis, Platt Park, Five Points and Whittier. Some of these neighborhoods saw the units as a middle ground between single-family and duplex housing to keep the character of the neighborhood, but open up new housing opportunities.

Other neighborhoods, such as Park Hill, didn’t want to allow the units and the new zoning reflects that.

“It’s one way to chip away at affordable housing in a community without having negative impacts that other developments are sometimes perceived to have,” Dalton said.

The city’s old zoning code, which took effect in the 1950s, did not allow the carriage houses or granny flats in single-family residential areas. Some existed and still exist in areas that were zoned for two units, according to Community Planning and Development spokeswoman Andrea Burns.

Mollie Crow, also in the Sunnyside neighborhood, is in the midst of building a garage with a carriage house above it after tearing down her old garage. Crow’s path to building has taken some time, as she intends to the do the construction herself.

Both Crow and Superka said the permitting process is arduous, but both are glad the city allows the cottage houses. Crow said she intends for her parents to live either in the unit or her home.

“I would say it adds more community, it allows young couples who want to live here and can’t afford it or don’t want to live in apartment complex,” Crow said.

The dwelling unit will also increase the value of the home, but by how much remains in question.

According to Denver assessor Keith Erffmeyer, the value will vary based on the amenities in a unit. He compared it to adding a finished basement, but said it’s hard to judge how much a unit will increase the value.

“It’s in the eye of the beholder,” he said.

Retirees Moving to Mountain and Pacific West

interesting article from unitedvanlines.com

South Dakota Overtakes Oregon as the Nation’s “Top Moving Destination”

2016 National Movers Study

Retirees Moving to Mountain and Pacific West

South Dakota narrowly overtakes Oregon, which held the top spot for the previous three years, as the nation’s “Top Moving Destination.” This is the first time South Dakota has held the no. 1 spot. Vermont inched out Oregon for the no 2. position, with Oregon rounding out the top three. Those are the results of the United Van Lines’ 40th Annual National Movers Study, which tracks customers’ state-to-state migration patterns over the past year.

Retirees are continuing to move to the Mountain and Pacific West. The Western U.S. is represented on the high-inbound list by Oregon (67 percent), Idaho (65 percent), Washington (58 percent), Nevada (58 percent) and Arizona (57 percent). Of moves to Oregon, the highest ranking Western state, a new job or company transfer (53 percent) and retirement (19 percent) led the reasons for most inbound moves.

The Southern states also saw a high number of people moving in with 53 percent of total moves being inbound. United Van Lines found the top reasons for moving south included company transfer/new job, retirement and proximity to family.
The Northeast continues to experience a moving deficit with New Jersey (63 percent outbound), New York (63 percent) and Connecticut (60 percent) making the list of top outbound states for the second consecutive year. Pennsylvania (56 percent) also joined the top outbound list this year.

“For 40 years, United Van Lines has been tracking which states people are moving to and from. We also survey our customers to understand why they are moving from state-to-state,” said Melissa Sullivan, director of marketing communications at United Van Lines. “As the nation’s largest household goods mover, the data we collect is reflective of national migration trends.”

“This year’s data clearly reflects retirees’ location preferences. We are seeing more retirees than ever decide to relocate, and as a result, new retirement hubs are popping up in Western states, said Michael Stoll, economist, professor and chair of the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Interestingly enough, these retirees are leaving at such a fast pace that the movement of millennials to urban areas in the Midwest and Northeast is being overshadowed.”

Regarding why people are moving, the Mountain West led the way with retirees, with one in four movers indicated they chose to move to this location for retirement reasons. Regions which saw the most inbound moves for company transfers included the Midwest (63 percent) and Pacific West (62 percent). The region with the largest exodus of residents due to finding jobs elsewhere was the southern U.S. (62 percent). Across all regions, nearly one in five of those who moved in 2016 moved to be closer to family.

United has tracked migration patterns annually on a state-by-state basis since 1977. For 2016, the study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. This study ranks states based off the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.

Moving In: The top inbound states of 2016 were:

1.South Dakota
2.Vermont
3.Oregon
4.Idaho
5.South Carolina
6.Washington
7.District of Columbia
8.North Carolina
9.Nevada
10.Arizona

South Dakota is the most popular moving destination of 2016 with nearly 68 percent of moves to and from the state being inbound. The state has continued to climb the ranks, increasing inbound migration by 23 percent over the past five years. New to the 2016 top inbound list are South Dakota at No. 1 and Arizona at No. 10 with 68 and 57 percent inbound moves, respectively.

Moving Out: The top outbound states for 2016 were:

1.New Jersey
2.Illinois
3.New York
4.Connecticut
5.Kansas
6.Kentucky
7.West Virginia
8.Ohio
9.Utah
10.Pennsylvania

In addition to the Northeast, Illinois (63 percent) moved up one spot on the outbound list, to no. 2, ranking in the top five for the last eight years.

New additions to the 2016 top outbound list include Kentucky (58 percent), Utah (56 percent) and Pennsylvania (56 percent).

Balanced

Several states gained approximately the same number of residents as those that left. This list of “balanced” states includes California, New Mexico and Delaware. Delaware appeared on the balanced list for the second consecutive year.